2026 Michigan Senate Race: El-Sayed Wins Primary, Faces Mike Rogers in November

On Tuesday, August 4, 2026, the 2026 Michigan Senate race entered a new phase: Michigan Democrats chose Abdul El-Sayed over U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in one of the year’s most expensive and ideologically charged Senate primaries. NBC News and other outlets projected El-Sayed the winner after a tight count. He will face Republican Mike Rogers—who ran unopposed in the GOP primary—on November 3 for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

Michigan is a presidential battleground Trump carried in 2024. Control of the U.S. Senate may run through this race.

Results

Candidate	Votes	Share
Abdul El-Sayed	528,143	49.7%
Haley Stevens	492,934	46.4%
Mallory McMorrow (withdrawn)	41,338	3.9%

El-Sayed’s margin was roughly 3.5 points. Wayne County (Detroit) late returns helped secure his lead after Stevens gained in Oakland, Macomb, and other suburban counties.

Who is Abdul El-Sayed?

• Former Detroit health director and Wayne County health chief; physician and epidemiologist
• Rhodes Scholar; lost the 2018 Michigan gubernatorial primary to Gretchen Whitmer
• First elected office — now the Democratic Senate nominee
• Egyptian-American Muslim from Ann Arbor; pitched as a progressive populist, not a socialist

Key endorsements: Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, the United Auto Workers, MoveOn, Our Revolution, Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, and filmmaker Michael Moore.

Why he won

1. David vs. Goliath spending narrative — Stevens and allied outside groups spent roughly $60M+ on ads vs. under $10M for El-Sayed (~9-to-1), per AdImpact. AIPAC’s United Democracy Project alone spent a record ~$32M boosting Stevens.

2. Israel/Gaza as a dividing line — El-Sayed campaigned to end unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel; Stevens backed additional aid and drew heavy AIPAC support. In a state with large Arab-American communities, foreign policy became a primary vote driver.

3. Medicare for All + anti-corporate money message — resonated with young voters and union households.

4. Establishment endorsements fell short — Whitmer, Schumer, Peters, Stabenow, and Obama-adjacent advertising for Stevens could not overcome the progressive surge.

5. Electability argument failed in the primary — Stevens argued she would beat Rogers more easily; Democratic voters chose ideology.

Republicans including Trump and the NRSC had signaled they preferred running against El-Sayed—some even ran ads highlighting his progressive credentials. That strategy, if intentional, did not stop his nomination.

Who is Mike Rogers?

• Former seven-term congressman (2001–2015), ex-FBI agent, former chair of the House Intelligence Committee
• 2024 Senate nominee — lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes while Trump won Michigan
• 2026: Unopposed GOP primary; Trump’s “complete and total endorsement”
• Once criticized Trump over Russia and the 2020 election; later reconciled and aligned with America First themes
• Priorities: auto industry competitiveness, lower energy costs, China competition, defense jobs, border security, Second Amendment

Policy contrasts (El-Sayed vs. Rogers)

Issue	El-Sayed	Rogers
Health care	Medicare for All	Opposes government-run universal care / ACA expansion
Economy / autos	Worker rights, anti-corporate rigging	Manufacturing jobs, energy costs, China competition
Abortion	Strongly pro-choice	Traditional Republican / conservative base
Immigration	Abolish ICE, broad reform	Border security, Trump-aligned enforcement
Israel / Gaza	End unconditional aid; genocide framing	Pro-Israel security framing; attack Dem “weakness”
Guns	Progressive gun-safety lean	Protect Second Amendment
Campaign money	Anti-PAC, anti-AIPAC centerpiece	Trump/NRSC-backed establishment Republican

November outlook

Polls disagree: one firm showed Rogers +10 vs. El-Sayed; another had a 45–45 tie. A Rogers–Stevens matchup had looked like a toss-up.

El-Sayed advantages: progressive enthusiasm, strong state Democratic trends, GOP hasn’t won a Michigan Senate race since 1994.

Rogers advantages: Trump state, near-miss in 2024, national GOP money, potential suburban and Jewish-community backlash to El-Sayed’s foreign policy.

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Your prediction

On November 3, Michigan chooses between El-Sayed’s progressive populism and Rogers’ Trump-era Republicanism—possibly deciding the Senate majority.

Who wins in November?

1. El-Sayed — turnout and base mobilization flip the suburbs
2. Rogers — Trump’s Michigan lean + El-Sayed is too far left for swing voters
3. Too close to call — another sub-2-point nail-biter like Slotkin vs. Rogers in 2024

Share your pick and which issue you think decides it: the economy, Gaza, abortion, or the Trump effect.