Iran Is Losing Control of the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler Shipping Data Shows

On August 18, 2026, CNN Business and other outlets reported that Kpler maritime tracking data indicates Iran has partially lost control of the Strait of Hormuz. More than 80% of vessel transits through the waterway over the preceding two weeks used the Omani route — a UN-authorized channel that Iran opposes — rather than routes Tehran has sought to enforce along the strait’s northern coast.

The shift marks a sharp reversal from roughly a month earlier, when Kpler observed virtually no commercial traffic on the Omani corridor. Analysts said the pattern undercuts Iran’s ability to dictate passage, collect transit fees, or credibly claim sole authority over one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints.

Editor’s note: This article draws on CNN Business, Reuters imagery and reporting context, The National, and Kpler analyst commentary published August 17–18, 2026. Vessel counts and oil-flow figures are based on tracking data and official statements available at publication and may be revised as “dark” shipping activity is reconciled.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the open ocean. Roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and a large share of liquefied natural gas passes through the narrow channel at normal times. Disruptions there ripple quickly through energy markets, shipping insurance, and Gulf export economies.

Since the outbreak of hostilities between Iran and the United States, control of the waterway has become a central military and economic battleground. Both sides have claimed advantage — often with conflicting public narratives about how much oil is actually moving.

Factor	Detail
Width	Roughly 21 nautical miles at narrowest point
Normal traffic	Pre-conflict averages cited around 20 million barrels per day of oil transit
Stakes	Gulf producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran) depend on safe passage
Current dispute	Which corridor ships may use, who may charge fees, and who provides security escorts

What Kpler data shows

Kpler, which tracks vessels via transponders and satellite imagery, reported that more than 80% of Strait of Hormuz transits over the past two weeks followed the Omani route. Iran has declared the strait under its control and has attacked dozens of ships attempting to travel via the north coast of Oman, according to CNN — yet most recent crossings have ignored Tehran’s demands in favor of U.S. naval protection, the reporting said.

Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler’s head of crude oil analysis, told CNN: “It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait.”

The data also suggests Iran has struggled to resume toll collection on ship traffic — a practice Tehran employed in the spring but has been unable to restore as traffic shifts away from Iran’s preferred lanes. The shift coincided with the expiration of a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding that had briefly eased tensions; neither side moved to extend the 60-day interim deal signed in Islamabad on June 17, according to energy-sector reporting.

Broader Kpler figures cited in regional media painted a grim picture for overall throughput: daily crossings had fallen into single digits by mid-August, down from a post-deal peak of 275 vessels in the week of June 24. An estimated 520 commercial vessels remained stuck in the Gulf, with clearing the backlog potentially taking six to eight weeks.

Competing claims: U.S. patrols vs. Iranian deterrence

The United States has deployed significant naval force in the strait and says it can escort tankers through contested waters. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that combined oil transits through the strait and rerouted around it totaled roughly 15 million barrels per day over a seven-day period — closer to pre-war norms than many independent trackers had suggested.

President Donald Trump declared on Monday, August 17 that the United States has “total control over the strait” — a claim he has repeated throughout the conflict. Analysts and shipping data cast doubt on absolute U.S. control: Iranian attacks continue, overall flows remain well below pre-war levels, and significant volumes move as “dark traffic” with transponders switched off for weeks, making full accounting difficult even for firms like Kpler.

Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, told CNN that Iran’s aim may be deterrence rather than full operational control: “If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with.”

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have chartered very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to move oil out of the Gulf and transfer cargoes to customer tankers in safer waters beyond the strait. Lipow cautioned readers to treat headline claims with care but agreed: “It is fair to say that Iran has partially lost control of the strait.”

The Omani route and Gulf diplomacy

The Omani route is recognized under UN shipping frameworks, but Iran vehemently opposes its use in the current environment. Gulf Arab states and Washington have backed the corridor as the most practical path while U.S. forces patrol nearby.

Separately, Oman and Iran have held talks aimed at restoring freedom of navigation without U.S. involvement — a development that has drawn criticism from the Trump administration, CNN reported. It remains unclear whether any Oman-mediated arrangement could stabilize traffic or simply reproduce the disputes over transit fees and sovereignty that unraveled the June memorandum.

Iranian oil exports through Hormuz fell by as much as 94% in early August compared with pre-deal levels, while other Gulf producers maintained exports closer to earlier volumes by using alternative routing and escorted passages, according to energy reporting citing Kpler.

Market and security implications

Even partial loss of Iranian control does not mean the strait is fully open. Insurance premiums, voyage delays, and the risk of missile or drone strikes continue to suppress traffic. Traders watch whether the Omani-route majority holds or whether Iran escalates attacks to force ships back onto Tehran’s terms.

For consumers and governments far from the Gulf, the practical question is how quickly stuck tankers clear, whether 15 million barrels per day estimates prove durable once dark traffic is counted, and whether Oman–Iran diplomacy produces a new framework or another breakdown.

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Discussion

The strait’s geography is fixed; who can safely move oil through it is not.

1. If over 80% of tracked ships now use the Omani route, does that mean Iran has effectively lost the Hormuz battle — or only the public-relations battle?

Iran can still attack vessels and keep total volumes depressed. Is partial loss of control a defeat, or a new phase of deterrence?

2. Should Gulf oil buyers trust U.S. transit figures (~15 million barrels per day) or independent trackers showing far lower daily crossings?

Who benefits when shipping data, satellite imagery, and political statements disagree?

3. Can Oman broker a navigation deal that satisfies Iran, Washington, and Gulf exporters — or will any fee-or-sovereignty compromise collapse like the June memorandum?

What would a durable settlement actually require?

Share your read on energy security, escalation risk, and what “control” of Hormuz should mean in practice.

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